Foreign exchange in August: markets really feel a recession coming

Foreign exchange in August: markets really feel a recession coming

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The world’s financial system is approaching a recession, which impacts the foreign money and commodity markets. Secure haven belongings at the moment are well-liked with Foreign exchange merchants, whereas the commodity market’s weak point places stress on commodity currencies. Let’s talk about that and make a buying and selling plan for GBPJPY,GBPCHF, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, and EURUSD.

Month-to-month basic forecast for G10 currencies

Monetary markets are often in a dormant state in August. Many traders go on holidays, and liquidity falls. Out of the world’s largest central banks, solely the Financial institution of England and the Reserve Financial institution of Australia maintain conferences, and solely at first of August. On the finish of August, the governors of the Fed, the ECB, and different regulators collect at Jackson Gap, after which Foreign exchange wakes up. That mentioned, the final month of summer season continues to be fascinating. A fall in liquidity will increase volatility, making foreign money fluctuations notably charming. 

Usually, we all know how monetary markets will perform within the coming months: the worldwide financial system is transferring right into a recession, elevating demand for safe-haven belongings. Within the first place, these are the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, as falling treasury yields have undermined the USD’s positions. International financial downturns often have an effect on the commodity market as issues round decrease demand drop the quotes of commodities. Commodity currencies are thus affected too. Curiously, the G10 currencies’ seasonal strikes affirm all these conceptions.

The franc and the yen really feel comfy as August’s leaders. The previous strengthened towards the USD in 26 out of 46 circumstances from 1975 to 2021; the latter — in 27 out of 46 circumstances. Quite the opposite, the NZD and AUD look susceptible. The commodity market can nonetheless upset the Aussie and the Kiwi regardless of rising progress of threat urge for food amid expectations of slowing down the Fed coverage tightening.

Progress/fall streaks


Supply: BoE, LiteFinance.

August’s outsiders additionally embody the pound sterling, which confirmed the worst median worth and one of many worst common values among the many G10 currencies. The pound’s common month-to-month loss is estimated at 0.6%. The Japanese yen and oil currencies, such because the Canadian greenback and the Norwegian krone, have registered one of the best median values. The pound misplaced practically 1.9% towards the USD in its worst intervals of closing within the crimson zone.

Common and median values

Supply: BoE, LiteFinance.

Quotes’ strikes throughout progress/fall intervals

Supply: BoE, LiteFinance.

Month-to-month Buying and selling plan for GBPJPY, GBPCHF, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, and EURUSD

The pound’s weak point might be attributable to political tensions and the dearth of decision within the BoE’s actions. A modest 25-point REPO price hike will give a purpose for promoting the GBPCHF and the GBPJPY

The seasonal issue and approaching recession negatively impression the commodity market and commodity currencies and positively impression safe-haven belongings. So, I like to recommend promoting the AUDJPY, and the NZDJPY, which is finest accomplished after conferences of the Reserve Financial institution of Australia and the RBNZ, the place selections to boost rates of interest will doubtless be taken.

As for the EURUSD, the pair will doubtless consolidate, and we can estimate the bounds of that consolidation within the nearest time.

Value chart of GBPJPY in actual time mode

The content material of this text displays the writer’s opinion and doesn’t essentially mirror the official place of LiteFinance. The fabric printed on this web page is supplied for informational functions solely and shouldn’t be thought of as the supply of funding recommendation for the needs of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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